New Energy Vehicle Policy Bonus Lithium Power Upstream Material Demand

The 4th China Lithium New Energy Industry International Summit Forum will be held in Changsha, Hunan from November 23 to November 25, 2016. This forum focuses on the latest technologies and R&D directions for the lithium battery industry chain. It will involve several world-renowned lithium-ion new energy industry chain companies and organizations, and is the most influential global lithium-ion battery technology and industry summit forum.
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In the first half of 2016, the dividends of new energy auto policies were intensively dropped. The "Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles" released earlier requires that by 2020, the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles to the total sales of automobiles will exceed 7%, and by 2030 this proportion will reach more than 40%. According to statistics, last year, sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for about 1% of total vehicle sales, and there is still room for improvement in the future. As a national strategy for new energy vehicles, major auto manufacturers have also formulated future development plans, and carbon credits and fuel consumption policies are expected to stimulate the development of new energy vehicles. The agency believes that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be issued near the time, and the production and sales of electric vehicles will be expected to enter the impulse stage. With policy support and expansion of demand, the lithium battery upstream material field will usher in rapid development opportunities.

From the perspective of the lithium battery industry chain, the upstream materials mainly include lithium raw materials, cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, separators, and aluminum plastic films. According to the ratio of the cost of the upstream material to the cost of the lithium battery, the positive electrode material and the aluminum-plastic film accounted for 30% and 18%, respectively. With the continued high growth in the sales of new energy vehicles and the gradual ramp-up of new lithium battery plant capacity, the demand for upstream materials will increase significantly.

Judging from the upstream cathode materials, ternary materials are still the mainstream trend in the future. At present, Sanyuan batteries are more assembled on passenger cars and special vehicles. According to statistics, Sanyuan Battery accounted for 58.48% of the passenger car power supply configuration last year, and accounted for 59.14% of the special car power supply configuration. According to the "Energy-saving and new-energy automotive industry development plan", by 2020 the energy density of the power battery module in China will reach 300Wh/kg or more, and the ternary battery is the most promising technology route to meet the requirements. The agency expects that the proportion of Sanyuan battery production will surpass the iron system by 2018 and is expected to reach 36.50GWh.

In addition, aluminum plastic film is the highest technical barrier for lithium battery materials, and has extremely high requirements in terms of related performance. Aluminum plastic film is a material that has not yet been domesticated in the main material of a soft lithium battery. The data shows that more than 95% of aluminum-plastic film market is occupied by overseas manufacturers, and the domestic aluminum-plastic film market accounts for less than 5%. With the acceleration of the application of new energy vehicle soft pack power batteries, the localization of aluminum plastic film will also accelerate. Institutions believe that the current global market space for aluminum film is only several billion yuan. With the downstream demand, the industry growth rate is expected to exceed 40%, and the potential market size will reach 10 billion.

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