· China's truck capacity surplus is nearly 50%

On October 29, Zhu Xianglei, director of the Data Resource Center of China Automotive Research Center, said at the 2013 China (Suizhou) Special Purpose Vehicle Industry Development International Forum held in Suizhou, Hubei, that the Chinese truck market is gradually warmer than last year, but the import and export data is declining, while truck capacity Excess, the development of new energy trucks needs to be broken.

The domestic truck market is gradually picking up, and the import and export data is falling.
Zhu Xianglei said that from January to September 2013, the cumulative sales of trucks in the domestic market was 2.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, compared with the gradual recovery of the truck market last year.

On the export side, after China joined the WTO in 2001, the truck export market grew rapidly; the 2008 financial crisis led to a sharp decline in truck export growth in 2009, but with the improvement of the international macro environment, the export market gradually recovered.

The specific data is from January to August 2013. China's trucks exported a total of 220,000 vehicles, down 12.3% year-on-year. Due to factors such as the turmoil in the international situation and the rise of trade protection in some countries, exports have declined this year.

On the import side, China's truck import market has a clear cyclicality, with a cycle of four years; due to the increased demand for high-end trucks in recent years, the number of Chinese truck imports in 2010-2012 has remained at a relatively high level.

The specific data is from January to August 2013, the cumulative import of trucks was 0.9 million, down 41.99% year-on-year. Among them, the import volume of heavy trucks above 20t decreased by a large margin, which lowered the overall trend.

Truck overcapacity is close to 50%

Zhu Xianglei said that in 2010, the rapid growth of the auto market ignited the passion of various auto companies to expand production capacity. Major auto companies have issued strategic plans in the 12th and 50th years, increasing investment expansion of their businesses and enabling commercial vehicle production capacity. The scale has expanded rapidly.

He believes that from the current production and demand situation in various market segments, heavy, medium, light and micro-cards are overcapacity. The direct consequence is that the company's capacity utilization rate is insufficient, increasing the operating costs of enterprises, and reducing operating costs. The merger and reorganization is inevitable.

According to reports, the current capacity of domestic medium and heavy trucks is about 2 million, but the actual market demand is only about 1 million;

In 2011, domestic light truck production capacity will be about 2.6 million to 5 million units, and it is expected to reach 4 million to 4.5 million units by 2015, but the actual market demand is about 2 million units;

Micro-cards currently have a domestic production capacity of 100-1.5 million units, but the actual market demand is about 600,000 units.

Natural gas heavy truck sales increased by 300% year-on-year, but new energy trucks need to break ice
Zhu Xianglei said that natural gas heavy trucks, as a new energy truck that emits better than diesel heavy trucks, have developed rapidly in the past two years. In January-August 2013, sales of 23,000 vehicles were sold, nearly three times the year-on-year growth. The annual sales volume is expected to reach 35,000 vehicles. From the perspective of product structure, natural gas heavy trucks are mainly tractors.

Although natural gas heavy trucks have developed rapidly in recent years, they still believe that new energy trucks need to be broken. He said that the prospects of new energy trucks are unknown, and pure electric vehicles are waiting to be broken. Although the state has repeatedly expressed its support for the development of electric vehicles, the construction of supporting facilities such as charging stations is still slow, and it is not enough to meet the needs of trucks as transportation vehicles to charge anytime and anywhere.

At present, the development technology of electric trucks is complicated, the cost is high, and the technology is not perfect. For the trucks used for making money, the market competitiveness is greatly reduced, which is not enough to attract truck users to purchase. Battery cruising range and charging time directly restrict the transportation efficiency of trucks and affect the economic benefits of truck users.

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