Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first half of this year, China’s truck market was generally in a declining trend, but the decline channel has narrowed, and some models such as light trucks and dump trucks have rebounded strongly under the policy.
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The reporters visited the major dealers selling trucks in Zhengzhou, and found that there are very few customers looking at cars in various brands, and the market demand is not high.
The “new-for-new†policy is difficult to solve. The recently released “old-for-new†policy stipulates that in addition to the subsidy for exchanging the original agricultural vehicles for light-duty trucks, the medium-, light-, micro-duty trucks and some medium-duty trucks that meet certain service life requirements are required. Passenger cars and “yellow-marked vehicles†shall be given a subsidy of no more than the purchase tax for the same-type vehicles if they are scrapped in advance and replaced with new ones.
The reporter visited the Zhengzhou truck brand dealers and learned that the trade-in policy does not seem to have a significant stimulatory effect on the Zhengzhou truck market. Many brand service shops have few customers to look at cars. “The policy of car-to-country is also good. Now that the subsidy policy is good, the market influence in Zhengzhou and even the whole of Henan will not be very big,†said a person in charge of the marketing department of a well-known truck brand dealer who did not wish to be identified. The subsidy for cars to the countryside, the procedures are very cumbersome, although the truck up to 10,000 yuan in subsidies, but it is very difficult to implement.
For the “old-for-new†policy, many dealers believe that although the state implements the old-for-new subsidy policy, most of the vehicles purchased by users after 2000 are only used for seven or eight years. Few of the truck owners will be willing to use them. The old car scrapped to buy a new car.
Although from the perspective of the policy itself, national stimulus policies seem to make more sense for heavy trucks than light trucks. After all, the life cycle of heavy trucks is relatively short, and the proportion of normal scrapped vehicles is high each year. And the amount of subsidy for heavy-duty bicycles is higher. However, dealers generally believe that, in fact, market reactions are based on consumer demand. Even the best policy leaves the market demand difficult to really stimulate market consumption.
It takes time for the truck market to come out of the doldrums Xu Changming, director of the Economic Information Center of the State Information Center, once expressed his opinion when predicting the trend of the commercial vehicle industry in China. From the perspective of the law of development, economic situation and other special factors, this year's commercial vehicle market in China should be favored. .
Xu Changming analyzed that for the commercial vehicle industry, there are three development laws worthy of attention: First, in the long run, by 2020, China is still in the stage of simultaneous acceleration of industrialization and urbanization. The annual GDP growth is expected to be 9%, and the proportion of urban population in the total population will reach 60% by 2020. Second, China's logistics transportation intensity is still very high, the more uneven the distribution of resources, the higher the transportation intensity, and China is a country with a very uneven distribution of resources. From the perspective of the proportion of the three major industries in the national economy, the proportion of the second and third industries has increased year by year. This is good news for the development of the commercial vehicle industry. Third, the volume of freight carried by highways is constantly increasing, and there is ample room for development. By 2020, the total length of highways in China will reach 3 million kilometers and the highway will be 85,000 kilometers.
Although the overall market is expected to be optimistic, most truck companies in the market remain cautious about the market's future trend.
Huang Gang, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. believes that the impact of the global financial crisis on China's medium- and heavy-duty trucks is mainly reflected in three aspects: the decline in market demand and the depletion of production capacity; the market is in the de-stocking phase, liquidity is declining, and the cash flow of enterprises is in short supply. The upstream supply chain and downstream distribution network have increased financing risks and the financing conditions have deteriorated. In the next 3 to 5 years, China's economy will enter the adjustment period, and the growth rate will begin to slow down.
Industry analysis believes that from the factors that have a direct impact on the truck industry, the country’s 4 trillion yuan of investment is gradually being put in place, and the role of the dump truck has been shown. Since April, the sales growth of dump trucks has begun to slow down. In the next step, it is difficult to predict whether the state will further invest all of its investment in a series of major projects, change its investment priorities, or reform its taxation system. It will be difficult to estimate how long it will take for trucks to continue to pull. There are also forecasts that the truck market is expected to go out of recession in the second half of next year, but it seems unlikely that it will return to 2006 and 2007 levels.
Medium-heavy trucks hope for targeted policies July and August are the traditional off-season of the auto market, many passenger car brands have increased propaganda, and reporters visited found that this is relatively rare in truck dealers.
Many truck manufacturers have reduced their support for dealers' promotional expenses. Therefore, most dealers only hold some small events this year, and most of them target older customers and interested customers. “Manufacturers believe that buying a truck is not the same as buying a passenger car. Buying a passenger car may particularly appeal to a certain brand, and customers will not consider other brands; customers who buy trucks will generally turn all brands over again, so manufacturers I don't think it is necessary to beat the brand."
Instead of placing high hopes on national stimulus policies, it is better to focus on solving the problems of the enterprises themselves. Some experts believe that the survival crisis of this truck market will promote the transformation of enterprises and the entire industry in three aspects: First, the transformation of goods and technology. Companies need to develop fuel-saving technologies and new energy vehicles to reduce vehicle use costs. The second is the transformation of market strategies. Under the economic crisis situation, the shrinking of the original market will promote enterprises to vigorously explore new markets, such as overseas markets and rural markets. The third is to strengthen management. Companies need to strengthen internal management, reduce costs and expenses, improve cash flow, and enhance their ability to resist risks.
Many companies and distributors have called for maintaining the healthy and sustainable development of the truck industry. The state should issue specific policies to promote the development of the medium-heavy truck market; solve the long-standing problem of overcapacity, overloading, and illegal assembly of the truck industry, and establish a fair and Orderly competition environment, improve relevant policies and regulations.
