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A few days ago, the China Steel Association made a demand forecast for the domestic steel market. In 2004, the demand for domestic steel sheets will reach 123 million tons (calculated on a base of 8.7% from the previous year). Among them, the output of plate is more than 43 million tons, the sheet is more than 54 million tons, and the strip is more than 22 million tons.
Although the output increased by more than 8% from the previous year, the total plate production was still less than 100 million tons (predicted to be 96 million tons). According to the current demand of 123 million tons, the overall supply is in short supply, and between 2000 and 30 million in the supply and demand relationship. Ton gaps can only be resolved through imports.
Through data analysis, the China Steel Association expects that the domestic plate market will gradually stabilize in the second half of the year under the condition of macro regulation and control measures. The price trend will tend to be stable, and the pre-dip diving market will not be staged again. The plate market price will stabilize. There is a rise to the main tone, but prices are unlikely to reach the high prices in the first quarter.
“In the first half of the year, the state temporarily controlled the investment in the steel sector through macroeconomic controls, and directly led to the decline in the price of steel. The prices of various models in the synchronous automobile industry have been diversified. The outside world often links the two, and in fact, the biggest impact is the car zero. Parts companies.†Shen Ningwu, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told reporters.
Parts companies experience cold and warm changes
Guo Qi is the marketing director of Shanghai Advertising Company and is responsible for the planning of Dongfeng Yueda Kia activities. Guo told this newspaper that the procurement of general auto companies is one year signed with parts and components companies, and the prices of one signing are all integrated. The factors do not change in one year.
“The manufacturer has mastered the dominance and can choose from a number of parts and components companies. Therefore, the risk brought by the steel industry can only be borne by the parts and components companies alone. From the beginning of the year, the parts and components companies experienced a huge price change.†Qi said.
Steel plays a decisive role in the cost of car manufacturing because 85% of the materials used to make cars are steel.
When steel prices were at a high level in March this year, Shi Longbin of the Chongqing Automobile Research Institute commented that the increase in steel prices will not have much impact on high-end cars, but the impact on economic cars is more obvious. Because price cuts are the mainstream of the economy car market this year, coupled with rising costs, the situation of double-sided baking can be imagined. "Under the combined effects of unfavorable factors, there may be some inferior companies that have been eliminated this year."
At that time, the industry was concerned about the rise in the price of steel because once this situation continued until the end of the year, when auto manufacturers and parts suppliers signed purchase contracts for the coming year, they would inevitably have to top up parts prices due to cost pressures. Going up, the corresponding car retail price will also increase.
"The long-term rise in steel prices will have some pressure on Geely." Zhang Xiaodong, Geely's public relations department, said that Geely had begun to carry out appropriate cost control at the beginning of the year. Zhang Xiaodong revealed that although the price of partial steel products is floating, auto parts suppliers will not immediately go up prices.
He exemplifies the current relationship between automakers and spare parts manufacturers: “It is like a heavy snowfall. Farmers have a small harvest, but they can only sell one yuan worth of vegetables, but they can’t sell two yuan at a time. Accepted." "Geely currently has a huge spare parts supplier system. Under this premise, the spare parts factory does not dare to raise prices."
Geely is sourcing from its peripheral parts. In this relationship of supply and demand, it is clear that car manufacturers have absolute advantages, while parts and components manufacturers are in a weak position.
For automobile enterprise groups that integrate parts and car manufacturers, it is another situation. According to sources from the Propaganda Department of Chang'an Group, the Group took internal measures in response to the rise in steel prices, and relieved pressure through mass production.†However, Changan Suzuki’s related persons also reminded: “Whole vehicle companies reduce raw material prices through internal digestion. The practice of rising pressure is essentially the loss of profits. â€
If this situation continues until the end of the year, in the Chinese auto market where production is gradually surpassing this year, next year's price increase will undoubtedly cause fatal blows to economic cars whose profits are further reduced. Fortunately, the country adopted a corresponding strategy in April.
In April, the state began to implement the steel industry to rectify overheated investment. The central bank tightened credit, which directly led to a sharp drop in steel prices. By June, the price of hot-rolled coils had dropped from 3,800 yuan per ton in April to 3,200 yuan per ton. yuan.
The fall in sheet prices has given a breath to the enterprises that make economic cars the main profit model. Under the pressure of rising raw material prices and continuous price cuts for economic cars, Shanghai GM’s “Sail†and Dongfeng Yue To Kia’s “Thousand Lima,†its profits have been running out.
Zhong Shi, a senior analyst in the industry, believes that companies will generally sign orders or establish long-term purchasing relationships. The steel used today may be pre-ordered several months ago. The price drop caused by the national macro-control has a time lag.
“But the most important thing is that the price of upstream materials is stable. Whether it is a sharp rise in prices or a rapid fall, it is not a good thing because companies need to determine the pricing of products based on material prices,†Zhong said.
The order of upstream and downstream markets needs to be adjusted
According to Article 22 of the newly released "Automobile Industry Development Policy," it is said that "the key support for iron and steel production enterprises is to realize the supply capacity of sheet metal for cars and to meet the needs of the development of the automobile industry." This item has caused steel and steel traders General concern.
In 2003, China produced 4.44 million cars, and the automotive industry consumed about 6.6 million tons of steel, which accounted for about 3% of the total consumption of steel products. From January to May of this year, the country produced 2.25 million cars, a cumulative increase of 28% over the same period. Among them, there are 650,000 freight cars, 570,000 passenger cars and 1.03 million passenger cars. It is estimated that in 2004, China’s automobile production will reach more than 5 million, and steel consumption will be 7.4 million tons, including 5 million tons of plate consumption.
In 2004, the national medium-thickness steel plate (thickness greater than 3mm and above) will reach 40 million tons. If 55% of the original plate is considered, the output of the traditional plate mill will be about 22.5 million tons, which is about 20% more than that of last year. The automobile industry Associated with plate demand closely.
"The 5 million-ton plate supply should be sufficient, but due to strong demand from other industries such as shipbuilding, it will consume most of the plate market share, so the demand for car plate is still in short supply," Shen Ningwu said.
According to data from the Automobile Industry Association, the average production of each vehicle consumes 0.151 tons of steel, and each vehicle maintenance part consumes 0.156 tons of steel. Steel is a traditional material of the automobile industry, along with the new "Road Traffic Safety Law." Implementation, the relevant departments will strengthen the management of overloaded vehicles, along with the long-term tense situation of the transport situation, the number of new models, medium and heavy vehicles will continue to increase, will undoubtedly drive the growth of steel consumer demand.
However, the fluctuation of steel prices at the beginning of this year has a significant impact on the downstream industrial chain of automobile production. If changes continue to occur in the downstream, it will inevitably affect the automobile manufacturers indirectly, and will eventually be transmitted to consumer terminals.
Upstream and downstream companies achieve their operations and development through the establishment of industrial chain security, often reflecting the degree of industry development or the existence of a relatively mature industrial organization structure. Since the automobile industry chain has just been developed, it does not yet have sufficient safety awareness. The main reason for dealing with the costs of market transactions and the risks of macro fluctuations is that the market environment is not yet mature.
"The coordination of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of automobiles needs to be rectified urgently," said Zhang Jun, director of the China Economic Research Center at Fudan University.
Zhang Jun believes that for a company located in the middle reaches of the river, ensuring the supply and price stability of the upstream products required is crucial to business decision-making and development. For the upstream companies, there is also a steady demand rather than a great ups and downs.
To achieve this goal of stability, it is a relatively stable industrial chain for the Chinese auto industry. The industry chain can be relatively loose or close; it can be a market contract or an M&A contract, and the industry chain between automobile manufacturers and parts producers often adopts long-term subcontracting contracts.
However, such a one-year subcontracting contract cannot reflect the changes in the upstream and downstream industrial chains in a timely manner. Parts companies cannot share the risks with auto manufacturers. In the early stages of the development of China's auto industry, the replacement rate of enterprises is still quite high. The initial batch of automakers may soon be replaced by more new companies due to the pressure of price cuts.
“The Chinese auto industry has not yet formed an effective industrial organization form, nor has it formed a brand enterprise with special core competitiveness and technological R&D capabilities. In the industry, everyone is still in a flat competition. At present, this situation needs to be improved.†Zhong Shi said.
Zhang Jun believes that if an industry does not form an effective industrial organization and is still decentralized in competition, it will be difficult to form a stable organizational structure between industries, that is, a secure industrial chain. Enterprises do not have such needs and have not established them. The possibility of security in this industry chain.
"To form a company's security industry chain, the industry itself must form a stable industrial organization."