The auto market will be better in 2011 than in 2011

After years of frantic growth, China's auto market has suddenly become lonely since 2011. For a time, people are not comfortable with it. Some people even feel desperate about the future and enter the new year across the old year, 2012. The trend of the auto market has always influenced the nerves of manufacturers, distributors and investors. So, will this year's market follow the trend of 2011, or will it rise slightly or suddenly become hot, or will it still be worse than last year?

Looking back, we can predict the future. Even if China's accession to the WTO has been a coordinate system for 10 years, the increase in sales and sales in the domestic automobile market last year will also be the lowest in 10 years. The Chinese auto market began to “highly consolidate” after it secured the throne of the world’s largest new car market for the third time. However, careful observation is not difficult to find that the rapid growth of the auto market in 2010 is an absolute "policy" outbreak, an overdraft and unhealthy market demand is mad. The growth of the auto market before 2010 is a result of many human interventions in rational demand. The emergency market in 2011 is like a sudden tightening of the seat belt, but it is also a normal response to market self-protection!

For the auto market in 2012, experts say that the declining growth of the auto market in 2011 is a short-term phenomenon, which is the result of policy withdrawal and macro-control. In 2012, the auto market will return to normal operation. The shifting and sinking of the automotive market is a long-term trend in the future. In other words, the 2012 auto market will run smoothly, and it will be slightly better than 2011. China's auto market is still in a period of growth, and it has not reached saturation level. Therefore, it is normal for instability to appear. China's auto market is also affected by macroeconomic regulation and international economic turmoil. However, in 2012, the country will not introduce great efforts. As a result of overall stimulus or restriction policies, the auto market growth will return to normal operation. The biggest risk of this year is the regional purchase restriction policy. Cities like Lanzhou may issue restrictions on purchases. In addition, this year the country will implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It is expected that the growth rate of GDP will be 8.7%, and that of fixed assets will increase by 21%, which will provide support for the growth of the auto market.

Looking around, looking at the developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan, and so on, the process of automobile popularization has experienced two periods of rapid growth. The first rapid growth period lasted for about five years. The average annual sales volume increased by about 30%, and the penetration rate for thousands reached 5 Vehicle. The second high-speed growth period lasts about 10 years. The average annual growth rate is about 20%, and the number of thousands of people has reached 130 vehicles. China's first rapid growth period took place from 2001 to 2009, and the second period of growth was from 2009 to 2023. “Generally speaking, the greater the income gap, the longer the time for cars to be used. The gap between urban and rural areas in China, the disparities in the eastern, central and western regions, and the industry gap are all large, which determines that the process of car popularization is slow. It takes about 12-14 years. "The author boldly predicted that in 2012 the auto market will grow at 7%-8%.

In fact, most car owners are not pessimistic about the auto market in 2012. Many people have locked the growth rate of the auto market in 2012 between 5% and 10%. General Manager Ye Yongming of Shanghai General Motors, Ren Yong, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Nissan, and Dai Maofang, general manager of Jianghuai Passenger Vehicle Co., Ltd. and other automobile owners have all given the above-mentioned pre-judgment of the interval growth rate. Of course, the auto industry should not only avoid a drastic decline in the annual sales of about 20 million high-end platforms, but also avoid the explosion of the previous two years causing too much pressure on energy supply, air quality in large cities and traffic. From the explosive growth of 30% to 50% year-on-year, to rational growth of 7% to 8%, this change is conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the auto industry, which is conducive to sustainable and healthy growth of auto consumption.