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In August, the heavy industry used a negative growth rate to limit production and electricity restriction policies to reduce the growth rate of heavy industry electricity consumption.
The China Securities Journal reporter learned from the National Energy Administration on September 14. In August, the whole society used 397.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, an increase of 14.69% year-on-year, and an increase of 2% from the previous month.
According to the authoritative experts of CEC, from the point of view of the growth rate of electricity consumption in August, all regions in China have implemented the production cut-off policy to achieve the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy saving and emission reduction targets, making the heavy industry electricity use contribute substantially to the entire electricity consumption. decline.
Heavy industry electricity consumption has negative growth
The data shows that in August the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 14.69% year-on-year, and the growth rate was about 2%. According to the authoritative opinion of CEC, this shows that the trend of electricity consumption still maintains a relatively good momentum of growth. However, from the point of view of electricity consumption, there has been a clear differentiation.
Among them, due to the fact that many regions in China began to increase their efforts to implement energy-saving emission reduction targets in late August, the limited-production and power-reduction policies are not uncommon, resulting in a significant reduction in the amount of industrial electricity consumption, especially heavy industrial electricity consumption. The data show that in August the industrial electricity consumption chain growth rate was -2.3%, while the heavy industry electricity consumption growth rate was -3.8%, the absolute amount of heavy industry electricity consumption in August decreased from the ring in July, reducing about 1.09 million Ton of raw coal.
According to analysts, in accordance with past laws, August is the peak season for production and electricity use. In August, the growth rate of heavy industry electricity consumption should be able to reach 2%-3%, but now it has decreased by 3.8%, which shows that the energy-saving emission reduction series limit The production-restricted electricity policy has caused a relatively obvious impact on the growth rate of electricity consumption.
However, while the power consumption of heavy industry decreased, the electricity consumption of residents, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry, and the electricity consumption of light industries still maintained a good momentum of growth. Even the growth rate exceeded the expectation to a certain extent. Among them, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry increased by more than 15% year-on-year, the electricity consumption of the light industry increased by approximately 6%, and the electricity consumption of the residents also exceeded the increase of 18%.
Xue Jing, director of the Statistical Department of CEC, said that the electricity consumption of the residents and the tertiary industry has greatly increased, and this has largely surpassed the gap in the decline in heavy industry electricity consumption, making it possible for the entire society to use 2% of electricity in August. The increase in the chain.
Energy conservation and emission reduction will continue to affect electricity consumption
Since the implementation of the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy-saving and emission reduction mission targets were implemented gradually in late August, the overall negative impact of the production-restricted power policy on the growth of electricity consumption was only the beginning.
Experts stated that due to the difficulty in implementing the energy-saving and emission-reduction tasks in the second half of this year, the central government has not issued any specific punishment measures for provinces that are unable to complete the task of energy-saving emission reduction as scheduled. Once the punishment measures are heavier, it can be expected to limit production in the second half of the year. Other mandatory energy-saving and emission reduction measures may increase month by month, and the impact on electricity consumption will be even more pronounced at that time. It is not even possible to exclude the negative growth in the sequential growth of electricity consumption in subsequent months.
The implementation of energy-saving emission reduction tasks will, to a large extent, limit the production-restricted energy-consumption policy to high-energy-consuming industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and chemical industries. In this way, electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries will continue to fall.
However, in the eyes of industry experts, this kind of human intervention will make it very difficult to forecast electricity consumption and even electricity consumption next year.
Earlier, CEC forecasted that the growth rate of electricity consumption for the whole year would be 12.5%. However, since the energy conservation and emission reduction policies have been implemented in various regions, there are certain variables in the above forecast data.
Xue Jing said that the man-made mandatory power production restriction policy actually obscures the actual demand in the heavy industry sector. Such demand accumulates. Once the policy is relaxed, the heavy industry’s production demand and consumer demand will rebound strongly, and then use electricity. The contribution will also rebound.
In August, heavy industry used negative growth in electricity consumption
In August, the electricity consumption of the entire society was 397.5 billion kWh, an increase of 14.69% year-on-year, and a 2% increase from the previous month. Experts stated that all localities implemented the production cut-off and power-limiting policies to achieve the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy-saving and emission reduction targets, resulting in a negative growth in the power consumption of heavy industries, which was -2.3%.