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Traders said that the current supply of ethylene in Asia is already very tight, mainly due to this year's Asian cracker repair year. South Korea's LG Chemical Company plans to shut down a 900,000-tonne/year naphtha cracker in Yeosu, South Korea, from March 3 to April 8, for energy expansion and overhaul. In addition, the reduction in exports of ethylene from Iran is also one of the reasons for the tight supply of ethylene in Asia. Iran is one of the major ethylene producers in Asia. Iran's ethylene exports usually come from the Assaroy region of the country. However, due to the shortage of natural gas raw materials, the cracker operating rate in the region is only 50% to 55%. .
As the current sale of ethylene is more profitable, some manufacturers in Asia have chosen to reduce the production of downstream styrene and polyethylene to sell more ethylene. Chandra Asri, the only cracking operator in Indonesia, recently awarded two tenders for ethylene shipments to be loaded at the end of February. One of them was priced at USD 1,350/tonne (FOB, Southeast Asia), and the other was US$1,375/tonne. Tons (FOB, Southeast Asia).
However, some market participants are concerned that the current irrational rise in ethylene prices will curb the downstream derivatives market. Because of the high cost of ethylene and the lack of supply, some high density polyethylene (HDPE) installations in Southeast Asia have reduced operating rates. Currently, HDPE film-level spot prices in Asia are in the range of 1,270 to 1,360 U.S. dollars per ton (CFR, China), which is basically the same as ethylene prices. An olefin trader in Singapore said: "At prices as high as $1300/tonne (CFR, Southeast Asia), buyers have become very cautious."
A cracking plant operator in Japan said: “In the new year, ethylene cracking business performed very well, but some new cracking production capacity will be put into operation one after another and will have a negative impact on the market in the second half of this year.†It is reported that Sinopec-Sand Bobo Petrochemical Company's 1 million tonne/year cracker and Thailand's PTT Chemicals' new 1 million tonne/year pyrolysis plant in Mata, Thailand, both started production this month, and Qatari Rasfan olefins company is located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar. The newly-built 1.3-million-ton/year cracker will also be put into operation in early February. Thailand’s Mata House Olefin Company’s newly-built 900,000-ton/year cracker in Mata, Thailand, and Shell Chemical Singapore’s new 800,000-ton/year cracker will In the first quarter of this year, Zhenhai Refining's new 1 million-ton/year cracker in Ningbo, China will also be put into operation at the end of March.
Looking forward to the second half of 2010, the Asian ethylene market will return to rationality as the new cracker is put into operation and the government’s fiscal stimulus policies gradually fade out.
Asian naphtha cracker enjoys golden period
Stimulated by the tight supply, spot prices for ethylene in Asia have recently risen sharply. Operators of naphtha crackers in Asia are enjoying a golden period of profitability. At present, the gross profit of naphtha cracking ethylene production in Northeast Asia reaches US$447/ton, and that of Southeast Asia is as high as US$513/ton, which is the highest level since July 2008. Due to the strong spot price of ethylene, most naphtha crackers in Asia are currently operating at full capacity.